The Paradox of Unintended Green Protectionism in Trump’s 2025 Trade Tariffs with Implications for Climate Justice and Economic Inequality

Abstract

This study analyzes the paradox of the protectionist policy “Liberation Day,” launched by President Donald Trump at the beginning of his second term in 2025. The policy was introduced to protect domestic industries, reduce the trade deficit, and stimulate economic growth. However, the broad tariffs imposed instead triggered a contraction in global trade and a temporary decline in carbon emissions in the maritime sector, a phenomenon referred to as unintended green protectionism. These environmental benefits did not stem from an energy transition but rather from an economic slowdown. The research adopts a descriptive qualitative approach through a single instrumental case study. Data were drawn entirely from secondary sources, including official government documents, reports from international organizations, and academic literature. The analysis employed content analysis to classify the impacts of the policy, while the Rational Actor Model was applied to examine the economic and political calculations underlying Trump’s decision. The findings reveal that the emission reductions were temporary and unjust, with implications for the weakening of international climate finance commitments. This outcome contradicts the principle of Common but Differentiated Responsibilities (CBDR), as developing countries bear greater burdens due to reduced financial support. The policy’s impact also created a Prisoner’s Dilemma dynamic in global trade, with countries retaliating through reciprocal tariff measures. This study highlights the urgency of examining protectionist policies that generate illusory environmental benefits, as such measures risk undermining international climate finance, contradict the CBDR principle, and exacerbate the vulnerability of developing countries, particularly in Southeast Asia.