The Rohingya Crisis and Regional Insecurity: A Conflict Analysis through Sandole’s Three-Pillar Approach

Abstract

The ethnic cleansing of more than 740,000 Rohingya from Myanmar since 2017 represents one  of the most urgent threats to peace and human security in Southeast Asia. This paper applies  Dennis Sandole’s three-pillar conflict analysis framework to critically examine the drivers, actors,  and failed responses surrounding the Rohingya crisis. First, the root causes (pillar one) are traced  to structural exclusion, including colonial legacies, Buddhist ethno-nationalism, and the 1982  Citizenship Law, which systematically denies the Rohingya legal identity. Second, the conflict  involves (pillar two) complex actor dynamics, including the Myanmar military (Tatmadaw),  nationalist political elites, regional governments, and the stateless Rohingya themselves. Third,  the absence of effective resolution mechanisms (pillar three) is evident in ASEAN’s continued  reliance on non-interference and consensus-building, which have proven inadequate in the face  of state-sponsored violence. Through qualitative analysis of regional policy statements, UN  reports, and diplomatic communications, this study argues that addressing the Rohingya crisis  requires a shift from reactive diplomacy toward preventive, justice-based engagement. This  paper contributes a theoretical and policy-relevant framework to strengthen ASEAN’s regional  peace architecture and promote sustainable conflict transformation.