The Looming Wall: Understanding the Consequences of China’s Dam Project on Bangladesh Economy

Abstract

Bangladesh’s textile industry, which accounts for over 80% of the country's export earnings and sustains millions of livelihoods, is critically dependent on consistent freshwater access—muchof which is sourced from the Brahmaputra River (Sikder, 2019). This study aims to identify theconstruction of the Yarlung Tsangpo mega-dam by the Chinese and its potential economic implication downstream, especially in the upper course of the Brahmaputra, and its future impact for Bangladesh’s water-intensive textile sector. By applying a qualitative approach, thispaper uses existing reports and literature to assess how upstream dam construction could impact water access for Bangladesh’s textile industry. Our analysis indicates that seasonal water diversion or disruption could significantly impact textile production capacity, particularly in northern and central zones reliant on the Brahmaputra for dyeing and washing processes (Restiani, 2017). The pressure on Bangladesh's economy becomes even more prevalent in the absence of any binding water-sharing agreement between China, India, and Bangladesh. With no clear regulations in place to manage how water is used or how large projects like dams are built upstream, millions of people downstream are left exposed. For Banglade sh itself, this couldbe translated as an urgency to address the livelihoods tied to its textile industry which could be put at immediate risk by decisions made far beyond its borders. (Manhas, 2025). In conclusion, the study underscores the urgent need for Bangladesh to strengthen its infrastructure andengage in strategic diplomacy to protect its textile-driven economy from the growing risks posedby upstream water control.